create, not chase

[i’m open-sourcing relevant sections of my anti fund lp letters, which i write monthly.]

Last month, I wrote about how value accrues to scarcity, and ai is changing what is scarce. The next step is to think about how to apply this to venture capital. As intelligence and digital execution get cheaper, scarcity flows toward the things you can’t generate on demand: exceptional people, proprietary data, physical infrastructure, trust, and human attention.

Right now in Q4 2026 in the singularity, the average venture capitalist is a momentum chaser. The game is to identify the hot startups that are leaders in their categories (this is mostly obvious as a mix of customer diligence, industry gossip, revenue traction and social proof) and then figure out how to buy in. RxBar and David Bar founder Peter Rahal explains this concept on the David Senra podcast elegantly; the venture capital game devolves into something “quite gay“ because it’s “chasing men for allocations.”

Not an erudite way to explain the vc business model to polite company, but it’s conceptually correct, and indeed it is a rational and profitable way to play. If you can get your money in with exceptional founders and companies that are consensus obvious, begging notwithstanding, it’s positive expected value in a bull singularity market.

But this is not the game that i was born to play. We must be creative and spark and kindle the childlike curiosity we all once had. the only way to play is to find scarcity bottlenecks that others find too complex or too hard and apply ingenuity and force of will to unravel them.the defining attributes between a successful and unsuccessful person (all other things equal) can be simplified to people flow and info flow. So in order to rise from average to exceptional, one must maximize people and information velocity and convert this activity into novel combinations and possibilities. Then comes the hard slog of prosecuting the concept better and faster than others.

To do this more efficiently, you need to sit deeply with the technology tree. what is possible now that wasn’t possible a year ago? what becomes possible if one more technical problem gets solved? who is actually capable of solving it? these questions determine the right people bets the consultant market map of who’s who in “ai infrastructure” or “robotics” is lagging indicator and three financing rounds too late.

Tech mastery is necessary, but insufficient. A three-headed hydra runs modernity: technology, government, and popular culture. These three domains are merging into one power structure. tech enables new capabilities that break old rules; government decides the rules; culture drives the values that shape the rules. they all converge. any worthy master plan must include moats across all three.

create, not chase.